1. Supply-side Price Stabilization and Structural Shift in Demand

In the second half of 2025, after two years of deep adjustments, China’s refractory industry showed characteristics of “bottom-level fluctuation with quality and efficiency improvement.” According to preliminary industry statistics, the total refractory production in 2025 remained around 22.5 million tons, showing only minor fluctuations compared with 2024. However, the output value structure changed significantly: the share of mid-to-high-end functional refractories increased by approximately 3.5%.

2. Production and Sales Revenue Analysis

In H2 2025, the sales revenue growth of major refractory enterprises began to outpace production growth, mainly benefiting from the accelerated exit of outdated capacity on the supply side. Influenced by environmental inspections and dual-control policies on energy consumption, some low-efficiency kilns in major production regions such as Shanxi and Henan were either dismantled or upgraded. According to estimates, the industry’s average gross profit margin rose to 16.2% in Q4, breaking the previous “increasing production without increasing profit” cycle.

3. Supply-side Price Trends

In the second half of the year, prices of bauxite and fused magnesia gradually stabilized. Due to restrictions on bauxite mining, the price of high-alumina raw materials remained at a high level (grade 80 bauxite stabilized between RMB 2,100–2,300 per ton), providing solid cost support for downstream refractory products.

4. Opportunities for Enterprises

The market is shifting from “selling products” to “system integration services.” Leading enterprises that can provide full-life-cycle contracting services enjoy significantly higher customer stickiness than single-product suppliers. Enterprises are advised to pay attention to the growth in demand for basic refractories driven by the increasing share of electric arc furnace steelmaking.