Market Price Trends and Profit Turning Point Analysis

After the sharp fluctuations in 2024 and early 2025, the refractory materials market showed clear signs of bottoming and stabilization by the end of 2025. Analysis suggests that this round of “price bottom” formation was mainly driven by cost rigidity, supply-demand rebalancing, and industry self-discipline.

Signals of Price Bottom Formation:

1.Stabilized Raw Material Costs: With the coverage of industrial kilns under the Emissions Trading System (ETS), raw material production costs are unlikely to fall back to low levels.

2.Inventories Dropped to Historical Lows: By the end of Q3 2025, the finished goods inventory turnover of refractory enterprises shortened to 22 days, indicating a recovery in downstream demand.

3.Increased Industry Concentration: The market share of the top 10 enterprises (CR10) approached 20%, which has partially curbed low-price destructive competition.

2026 Profit Outlook:

Looking ahead to 2026, the refractory materials industry is expected to enter a period of steady profit recovery. As the “upstream concession” logic unfolds in the steel industry, the downward adjustment of iron ore and coke prices is likely to release steel mill profits, thereby improving the accounts receivable and payment quality for refractory enterprises.

Expert Forecast:

The average profit margin in the refractory industry is expected to recover to 5%–8% in 2026. For companies with self-owned mines or low-energy-consumption kiln technologies, the potential profit growth is expected to be even more significant.