On April 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the first quarter economic operation data, showing a decline in economic growth rate but still within the target range.

The previously released foreign trade data showed a decline in both imports and exports, which was also lower than expected. However, many analysts are cautiously optimistic about the foreign trade data and believe that it will improve in the second quarter.

Zhang Yansheng, Secretary General of the Academic Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters that although the foreign trade data for the first quarter showed a downward trend, it was actually a data of structural changes. He believes that the downward trend in foreign trade data is an illusion, and behind the data lies the end of the 35 year model. In the process of forming a new model, speed is not the most important factor.

Behind the decline in growth rate

Sheng Laiyun, Director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at the press conference that the external environment remains complex and severe, and it seems that one of the reasons for the slower than expected export growth rate.

Since the beginning of this year, the United States has experienced a "severe winter" that has dragged down its economic growth. Emerging economies have been under significant downward pressure this year due to financial and other factors. The International Monetary Fund has also lowered its expectations for world economic growth by 0.1 percentage points, and for developing countries by 0.2 percentage points. This means that the recovery of the world economy is worse than expected, and from an external perspective, it will inevitably affect China's exports.

But Sheng Laiyun said that if the changes in false trade factors in the first quarter of last year are deducted, China's actual import and export performance should be better reflected than the data itself.

Sheng Laiyun believes that the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size can serve as a reference for observing changes in China's import and export data. This data shows a growth rate of 4.2% in the first quarter of this year, which is slightly lower than last year's growth rate but still maintains growth. In the first quarter, the delivery value of industrial exports above a certain scale accounted for about 85% of China's foreign exports.

Zhang Yansheng believes that the conclusion drawn from the first quarter data is that we should be impacted early, adjust early, and achieve results early. He believes that the downward trend in foreign trade data is an illusion, and behind it lies the conclusion of the 35 year model. In the process of forming a new model, speed is not the most important factor. If it is within a reasonable range, it will be the golden period for deepening the reform of foreign trade structure adjustment and reform.

Zhang Yansheng said that although there is great pressure from the economic downturn, this pressure mainly comes from adjustments and reforms. In this situation, the foreign trade data for January this year shows that comprehensively deepening reforms and persistently increasing prices are the foundation for the improvement of foreign trade data.

A person close to the Ministry of Commerce told 21st Century Business Herald reporters that there is no need to overestimate the difficulties encountered in foreign trade in the first quarter, as the external environment is showing a positive trend. In addition, the renminbi began to depreciate on February 17th, and this impact can take as fast as three months or as slow as six months to reflect. The Ministry of Commerce still has confidence in achieving the annual target of 7.5%.

The person believes that the Spring Trade Fair starting on April 15th can serve as a window on the foreign trade situation, and the situation reflected at this fair is more informative.

Each province has its own joys and sorrows

At the enterprise level, each province has its own joys and sorrows.

Taking Guangdong Province as an example, in the first quarter, the total import and export value of Guangdong Province was 1.36 trillion yuan, continuing to rank first in the country, but decreased by 25.2% compared to the same period last year. In March alone, the total import and export value of Guangdong Province's foreign trade decreased by 38.6%. Customs officials believe that, excluding special factors, Guangdong still faces relatively severe external challenges. In addition, most foreign trade enterprises hope to reverse their decline through the Canton Fair.

A business person in the textile industry in Guangdong told 21st Century Business Herald reporters that although their first quarter order situation was "okay", they still hope to get more orders at the Canton Fair.

On April 15th, Liu Jianjun, spokesperson for the Canton Fair, said that although the foreign trade situation in the first quarter of this year was severe, from the perspective of international demand, the world economy maintained a recovery momentum in 2014, the internal driving force of Chinese foreign trade enterprises increased, and the innovation of institutional mechanisms improved the competitiveness of enterprises. All of these factors are positive.

According to the information released by the statistics department of Jiangxi Province, a survey on the production, operation, and business situation of 1637 normal production enterprises in Jiangxi Province showed that in the first quarter of this year, the export and ordering situation of industrial enterprises in Jiangxi was better than the same period last year, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the export value of large-scale industries in the province can reach about 20%.

The data released by the customs shows that the export growth rate of Jiangxi in the first quarter was 13.8%, significantly higher than the overall export growth rate of China in the first quarter. The export growth rates of Chongqing, Sichuan, Shanxi, Gansu and other places have all increased.

Zhang Yansheng believes that in terms of data, the import and export of state-owned enterprises increased in the first quarter of this year, while the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises and private enterprises decreased. This is not consistent with previous years' data. In the whole year of last year and the past four years, the export growth of private enterprises was higher than that of state-owned enterprises, and the development situation of private enterprises in the first quarter may not be optimistic. However, general trade still achieved a steady growth of 6.4%, indicating that the independent development ability of foreign trade enterprises is gradually increasing.

The above-mentioned individuals close to the Ministry of Commerce believe that the main problems currently faced by private foreign trade enterprises in China include rising labor costs, which have put them at a disadvantage in competition with neighboring countries. For example, in the field of daily consumer goods, they are no longer able to compete with Southeast Asia. Therefore, private enterprises must find a way out and develop in the direction of deep processing and high added value.